A signature-based machine learning model for distinguishing bipolar disorder and borderline personality disorder
Goodwin, Guy M
Geddes, John R
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Imanol Perez Arribas, Guy M. Goodwin, John R. Geddes, Terry Lyons and Kate E. A. Saunders. A signature-based machine learning model for distinguishing bipolar disorder and borderline personality disorder.Translational Psychiatry Vol 8, 274 (2018)
Mobile technologies offer new opportunities for prospective, high resolution monitoring of long-term health conditions. The opportunities seem of particular promise in psychiatry where diagnoses often rely on retrospective and subjective recall of mood states. However, deriving clinically meaningful information from the complex time series data these technologies present is challenging, and the current implications for patient care are uncertain. In this study, 130 participants with bipolar disorder (n = 48) or borderline personality disorder (n = 31) and healthy volunteers (n = 51) completed daily mood ratings using a bespoke smartphone app for up to 1 year. A signature-based learning method was used to capture the evolving interrelationships between the different elements of mood and exploit this information to classify participants’ diagnosis and to predict subsequent mood. The three participant groups could be distinguished from one another on the basis of self-reported mood using the signature methodology. The methodology classified 75% of participants into the correct diagnostic group compared with 54% using standard approaches. Subsequent mood ratings were correctly predicted with >70% accuracy. Prediction of mood was most accurate in healthy volunteers (89–98%) compared to bipolar disorder (82–90%) and borderline personality disorder (70–78%). The signature method provided an effective approach to the analysis of mood data both in terms of diagnostic classification and prediction of future mood. It also highlighted the differing predictability and the overlap inherent within disorders. The three cohorts offered internally consistent but distinct patterns of mood interaction in their reporting which have the potential to enable more efficient and accurate diagnoses and thus earlier treatment.
Published online at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41398-018-0334-0 This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.